The End of Muscle Power
I am convinced that robots (or more generally, automation) are going to replace most non-intellectual labor. While some paint a rosier picture than others, the net result will be a near total-end to the use of human muscle power as a means of production.
..and this will be a catastrophe if serious reforms are not made.
Total replacement will likely only occur towards the end of my lifetime, meaning the future looks bleak and full of dissension. It will not be possible to fund governments solely through income taxation anymore, since most people will be unable to profitably work. Most people will be, as far as the labor markets are concerned, about as useful as a fifteen year old girl with Down’s Syndrome and a crack addiction.
And it will not be mere lifting with the muscles that machines will replace – even simple mental tasks will be automated even more than they are now (such as manual data entry). As machines eventually develop the ability to read human languages with high precision, and automatic translation software becomes competitive with human translators, we will eventually reach a point where every human written word (Chinese, Korean, English, or even Swahili), will be automagically read by computer, translated into all known languages, and available for global consumption. Even translators will be driven out of business by AI.
Heck, I even work in the automation field, so I have some knowledge as to what exactly is coming down the pipe. I work on mathematical algorithms for managing the energy facilities in large air conditioning operations – something that is currently done inefficiently using “skilled” human plant operators. Using advanced mathematics, we can more efficiently dispatch the energy resources of the facility, saving the customer a fortune over the long run. Those plant operators?
Fire their asses.
The Concept of an “Economically-Relevant Minimum IQ”
I define an “economically-relevant minimum IQ” (ERMIQ) as the lowest possible level of intelligence will allow you contribute profitably to the labor market, and contribute to overall GDP. In other words, you will be a net-producer instead of a net-consumer of resources. I estimate the ERMIQ to be about 75. With an IQ of 75, stoop labor and janitorial work is a feasible (if horrendous and back-breaking) occupation. Of course, employment prospects scale dramatically with increasing IQ.
The big problem facing us moving into the mid-21st century, is that the ERMIQ will rise quickly as more and more sectors of the economy become automated and locked-out to low-IQ participation. Drearily, I estimate that in the end-game of this unemployment-wracked dystopia, the ERMIQ may rise to as high as 120, locking out huge swaths of the population from gainful employment.
Why do I believe the ERMIQ will rise so high? For the simple fact that you need a very high IQ to design, build, and maintain the intricate machines and program their AI that are going to be doing most of the heavy lifting for us in the future. People with low IQ’s simply will not be able to do that kind of work. The labor force of the future under a regime of near-total automation will be composed almost exclusively of high-IQ technocrats, e.g. scientists and engineers.
I personally don’t fear for my own job (at least, not on the grounds of being replaced by automation), but I have an IQ of somewhere in the 140 to 150 range. I am not being replaced by automation – I am working to replace other people with automation. An IQ of 120 is two standard deviations below me, which is probably the minimum IQ you can have and still be able to do the things I do for a living as an engineer. I do not say these statements to gloat; I am simply presenting evidence as to why I believe the ERMIQ can feasibly rise to 120. You require a generous IQ to be an engineer, and even upon becoming an engineer, companies only look to hire the best-of-the-best engineers.
Even among the highly-intelligent, I expect competition for jobs to reach Hobbesian levels of hyper-cutthroatedness.
Race, IQ, and the Coming Dystopian Social Chaos
From the racial angle, blacks and Hispanics will become an obsolete people under the automation regime. In fact, people with IQ’s below 100 will in general be obsolete – which includes, by corollary, 50% of white people.
According to calculations I have done (see the below tables; mixed race categories have been excluded) using current U.S. Census data, reasonable figures for mean IQs, and twiddling with standard deviation to be either 10 or 15, the percentage of the U.S. population with an IQ above 120 is (drum roll please):
Between 1.84% and 7.27%!
Especially dreary is the fact that, not even 1% of blacks will possess ERMIQ (IQ >= 120) by the time this great replacement is complete. This bears reflection, as this is an explosive recipe for social chaos. Blacks are propagandized daily concerning racism, absolving them from responsibility for violent actions, and told repeatedly “its not their fault, its whitey.” What are we going to do when over 99% of black people become unemployable, and end up living in a state of generational pauperism on EBT? The prospects for violence, insurrection, terrorism, and other civil strife are virtually guaranteed.
|Racial Category||Census Count||Percentage|
|Hispanic or Latino||50,477,594||16.86%|
|TOTAL (ignoring mixed races)||299,446,118||100.00%|
|Mean IQ By Race||Standard Deviation|
|IQ CUTOFF →||120||Count Past the IQ cutoff|
|Percentage of US Population with Relevant IQ||→||7.27%|
What is the solution?
I foresee that only some redistribution scheme will be possible, where resources will be taken from the few remaining productive sectors of the economy and relinquished to low-IQ populations as a means of humanitarian assistance. A short-term solution will be to vastly increase the power of the police state to monitor and control the appetites of the unintelligent (or rather, under-intelligent). We can look forward to a far more policed and controlled society, where movements will not only be monitored, but tightly controlled as well.
The future looks bleak for those with high intelligence. The people that win the genetic lottery and are born with a high IQ will command high salaries… only to have their high salaries taxed into oblivion to pay for the great mass which has no productive capacity. The future technocratic class will be composed almost entirely of whites, Jews, and Asians, and these high IQ productive worker-bees will be used as little more than slaves by a power central government to generate the taxable incomes needed to pay for less-intelligent blacks and Hispanics. The preponderance of whites will be written off by seething hordes of nonwhites as simply white privilege in action, regardless of the truth about IQ.
The long-term solution, will likely be some sort of genocide or the instigation of a war in which large numbers of under-intelligent folk can be bled off, leaving only a high-IQ overclass to manage things. Such an idea is immoral and monstrous, but I do not believe that high IQs lead to noble morals.