Racial Crime Profiling and the Data Deluge

The Positives of Racial Profiling

I personally think racial profiling is great.

Really.

I’m being serious!

I know what you’re thinking:

“Unpropaganda! How can you say such a thing? Isn’t racial profiling simply a way to expand the school-to-prison pipeline and lock up more innocent young black and Hispanic males?”

Au contraire, mon frere!

We Americans are actually thrilled with the idea of profiling – we do it everyday. It is simply racial profiling in law enforcement that seems to get everyone’s dander up.

Let’s start off with a little thought experiment.

The Graffiti

18th street gang graffiti

Example graffiti.

Let’s say you are walking home one day, and encounter an ugly spot of graffiti, illegally spray-painted on the exterior wall of a business in your community. For the sake of argument, let’s say this graffiti is found in California. Who committed this crime? Well, due to patterns in who perpetrates what kind of crime, we can already take a guess. But let’s throw out some possible candidates, and deduce which one is most likely to have committed the crime:

  • An 87 year old wheelchair bounded White grandmother living in a town 50 miles away.
  • A black infant in a stroller.
  • A happily-married 45 year old Asian businessman with three children and a net worth of over $4 million.
  • A 13 year old mentally-retarded Jewish schoolboy.
  • A 17 year old Hispanic high school dropout living about half-a-mile up the road.

The reader can probably already see where I am going with this, but we’ll go through the motions anyways just to be academically thorough.

  • It is entirely possible the white grandmother committed the crime. She could have driven the trip (with the help of an accomplice), rolled up to the wall, sprayed the 18th Street Gang’s logo all over the wall, and then rolled away to her getaway vehicle. Of course, the probability of this being what truly happened is about equal to the probability of throwing out a stack of quarters and having them all land on the edge.
  • This one is even more absurd; the infant is about the same size as the spray can, and cannot stand tall enough to have sprayed this graffiti.
  • Certainly possible. He certainly has the means to have bought the spray paint, and was able-bodied enough to have written the graffiti. Again, the probability is vanishingly small. Why would such a wealthy man risk his business reputation to commit a low-level vandalism offense on behalf of a Hispanic gang that would probably shoot him if he wandered into their barrio?
  • Again, possible, but unlikely. This scenario seems much more likely if the boy was tricked into spraying the graffiti.
  • *DING* *DING* *DING* STEP INTO THE WINNER’S CIRCLE!

Sure, they are plenty of other possibilities. In fact, as any reader of Sherlock Holmes knows, detective work has no shortage of possibility. What is usually in short supply is probability. Hell, the entire American criminal justice system is not even based on affirmative truth, but on the probability of guilt (as a crude rule of thumb, “beyond a reasonable doubt” corresponds to a confidence of 90% or more that the accused is guilty).

What this example shows, is how absurd it is to not profile. In the world of the racial egalitarians, the police should give completely equal weight to each of the profiles I gave you before, no matter how wasteful it would be of police resources, despite the Hispanic dropout being the one most likely to be guilty of the offense.

This does not mean that any arbitrary Hispanic dropout should be thrown in jail; it just stands to reason that the police should direct their resources towards the population most likely to be responsible. Instead of harassing black and white kids in the neighborhood, it would make more sense to inspect the young Hispanic males in the vicinity with a gimlet eye.

The negative effects of racial profiling are overblown anyways (while the enormous positives are downplayed or ignored altogether). And being Hispanic alone would never be enough evidence to put anyone in the slammer anyways. It is one thing to arrest someone for a crime; it is another thing entirely to get a conviction. The most inconvenience an innocent young Hispanic male would suffer is an arrest for vandalism, but no conviction.

Racial Profiling – One Piece of the Profile

The above example uses multiple different types of profiling to arrive at a reasonable guesstimate of the suspect. We profiled on the basis of:

  • Age, because graffiti and vandalism crimes are overwhelmingly committed by young people.
  • Gender. This is a huge one. Young men are the overwhelming majority of criminals, involved in all kinds of crime. The odds that a female committed the crime, while extant, are dwarfed by the odds that a male committed the crime. While people (especially blacks and Hispanics) get all riled up over racial profiling, no one seems to blink an eye at the idea of gender profiling.
  • Location. We didn’t bother sending the FBI to investigate Dinka cattle herders in the middle of the Sudan for spraying the graffiti – they are thousands of miles away from the scene of the crime, and realistically might not know how to operate a spray paint can. Opportunity makes the crime, so it makes better sense to investigate people that are nearby and outside.
  • Race. The 18th street gang is a Hispanic street gang, that only lets in Hispanics.
  • Education level. Criminals are disproportionately low-IQ people, coupled with poor education levels. Stupidity, ignorance, and excessive testosterone are an explosive mixture for crime and vice. It is extraordinarily unlikely that a professor of physics or corporate attorney would be involved in this kind of crime, simply on the basis of a stupendous education level. A high school dropout however, seems ready-made for this kind of low-level street crime.

Deeper Crime Trends

Crime trends are far more sinister though that young Hispanic males defacing private property. From what I have read on the interwebs, the trends go like this:

Whites: White commit all kinds of crimes.

Blacks: Blacks overwhelmingly commit violent crime and crimes of passion. Gun crime is an especially big problem.

Hispanics: Sexual assault on children and DUI.

Asians: Gambling.

The purpose of this blog post is not to explain racial crime patterns; I personally think explanations of these patterns are of little worth anyways. What is important is that the patterns exist. On the basis of sound statistical evidence, race makes up an indispensable component of  criminal profile.

The Big Data Revolution, Detection Technologies, and Police Work

Big data will revolutionize police work. It already is. Have a look at this video (uploaded in 2011):

Some of the highlights:

  • $150 million surveillance system
  • Artificial intelligence (which is only getting better and better) watching all of the screens at once.
  • Automatic detection and logging of suspicious packages left alone for too long.
  • Complete searchability of the video feeds on the basis of a description of a person (e.g. red shirt, white pants).

While not featured in the news footage, it is highly likely that the video feeds are searchable based on race.

And this is a drop in the bucket compared to what the surveillance society of the future will unleash upon the criminal underclass. The advances in detection will make all sorts of crime completely unprofitable to commit.

The End Game of Near-Perfect Crime Detection

Ask and liberal about the content of this blog post, and they will likely dismiss it as “racism”, and “missing the real trends of white supremacy and institutionalized racism in the criminal justice system.” The problem is that such people are fanatics that will not be convinced by genuine information or genuine evidence. It is simply not worth my time to try and convince such people that the sky is blue if they insist that it is yellow with orange polka dots.

I have bad news for such people – it is only a matter of time. Crime data will become so overwhelming that black cries of racism will become meaningless. Data fusion centers, GlobalHawk surveillance, bullet microphones, arrest reports, better police training, camera footage, and (nowadays) police body cameras will all paint an ugly picture of the undeniable truth of black and Hispanic violent crime propensities – especially black crime rates.

Will this final realization of the truth finally lead to an embrace of racial profiling, rather than a rejection of it? It all depends on how stiff the spines are of future white Americans. Do they want to live in a safe, orderly society, with little fear of crime or victimization from the thug element in society? Or will the boa constrictor of white racial guilt continue to hound white people for another five decades? While white people stand up to their own leaders, and demand better change? Or will they allow themselves to be led to their ultimate doom of living in a multicultural, frothy swamp of backward races warring over the remains of what used to be the Greatest Nation on Earth?

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